Thursday, 14 June 2012

Something Fishy

Talking of 1 in 6's... according to this fancy little chart, there is a 1 in 6 chance of me getting the call RIGHT THIS MOMENT.

This is the Poisson Distribution chart, created by a Mr. Poisson (fishy guy). It basically tells you, according to Mr Poisson's theory, the probability of when a random event will happen. You have to know certain values - which I do! I know there is an average waiting time of 4 months for my liver. I also know that I have been waiting for (nearly) 2 months.

Sooo, along the bottom I go to 2. Then from that point I go up until I hit the purple dotted line (4 months). (I KNOW this sounds stupid but apparently it's all true.) Go across and voila! you get to 0.17. Which equals 1/6. Well, 0.166666666666666666.

And that is the probability that this random event will happen right now!

Now with my Freudian Feelings all sensitive (coincidences and whatnot), I can't escape all the 1 in 6 chances! If I was Freud i'd be all "Ach! Eet is true, I vill receive mine Liver rghight this moment! Ach the connectionz argh too strhong!". Of course, Freud didn't get any of his predictions right (he died when he was 83, not 62... no where even close Siggy), so i'm not holding my breath.

(Haang on 83... 62... +2, -1... Just kidding.)

Still, look at how steep the line is now. Which means that with everyday my chances get higher and higher! (The curve goes down after 4 months because the chances are it's already happened. Cool huh.)

Can you tell this is devouring my brain? I swear I can't think of anything else. Deary deary me.

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